The Renaissance Dam Dilemma: Political and Economic Impact on African Countries

The complexity of the relationship between geography and politics has made transboundary water bodies a clear example of how nature and political conflicts intertwine. In light of the worsening water scarcity crisis over the past decades and the increasing global demand for freshwater, which once extinguished fire, has now become a substance that could ignite the flames of war and a weapon fueling conflicts due to competition over water sources and their management.

If we look at the world map and carefully examine areas of international conflicts over water, we will find that the Nile Basin has witnessed rapidly escalating tensions since Ethiopia launched the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project in 2011. The ongoing dispute in the region is classified as one of the "most intense and fluctuating" water conflicts in the world, according to Geopolitical Monitor.

List by "adelphi" European Research and Studies Center

The Nile Basin Countries and the GERD Dilemma

Throughout history, the Nile River has been an integral part of the natural identity of the African continent and a vital source of its water wealth. It has served as the lifeline running through the Nile Basin countries. However, it has also become a point of regional tension after the Ethiopian government announced plans to build the Renaissance Dam with the aim of utilizing its water resources to generate hydroelectric power.

The GERD project has led to tensions in the relationships between the neighboring countries for two main reasons:

First: There are no treaties between all the involved parties to regulate and allocate water rights for each country in the Nile Basin, which includes the upstream countries of Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, as well as the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan, along with South Sudan, which joined the Nile Basin countries in 2011.

Second: Ethiopia's significance as the main source feeding the main Nile River with about 70% of the Nile's water, primarily through the heavy rainfall season experienced by the Ethiopian plateau. These waters reach the Nile River through three main tributaries: the Blue Nile, the Sobat, and the Atbara rivers. Therefore, the GERD project in this region is seen as a threat to water flow, posing a risk to the water security of the downstream countries, namely Egypt and Sudan.

According to the Egyptian General Information Authority's portal, Egypt receives 55.5 billion cubic meters of water annually under the 1959 agreement, while Sudan receives 18 billion cubic meters, with the total flow of the Nile river being 84 billion cubic meters, approximately 10 billion of which are lost during the flow from south to north due to evaporation and seepage.

In this context, the potential effects of the dam on the Nile River’s flow have become a significant concern for the downstream countries, particularly Egypt, where the Nile River is the primary source of water. Egypt’s share of 55.5 billion cubic meters constitutes 79.3% of the country’s water resources and covers 95% of current water needs. Therefore, any reduction in Egypt’s water share could lead to a catastrophe due to Egypt's near-total dependence on Nile water, being a desert country.

The GERD issue is further complicated by its varying economic impact on both upstream and downstream countries, as we will analyze.

Ethiopia

On the Blue Nile, Ethiopia has completed the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which stands at a height of 145 meters, with a reservoir capacity of 74 billion cubic meters. The project is an investment worth $4.7 billion. According to the "NATO Atlantic Organization in Canada" (NAOC), the GERD is expected to provide Ethiopia with a range of economic benefits, summarized as follows:

1. Achievement of the largest hydropower project in Africa, which is expected to generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity in a country where 66% of the population currently experiences power outages.
    
2. Exploiting Ethiopia’s vast hydropower potential, which reduces reliance on organic fuels and contributes to the implementation of development projects.
    
3. Exporting surplus energy to neighboring countries, which could provide electricity not only to Ethiopians but also to people in the Horn of Africa.
    
4. Irrigating more than 1.2 million additional acres of agricultural land, with expectations for Ethiopia's economy to grow through increased agricultural production.
    

While the dam project could present an opportunity to resolve the energy problem by boosting hydroelectric power supplies, it may also jeopardize the region's water security and impose significant economic costs on Ethiopia, impacting other financial sectors. Additionally, the social effects of the dam's construction, including population displacement, cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the continued presence of water in the reservoir area could lead to the spread of malaria and increase health impacts, which impose new economic and social pressures.

Egypt

The dam project poses an existential threat to Egypt and incurs significant financial, economic, and climatic losses, the most critical of which are:

1. A 25% reduction in Nile water flow to Egypt during the reservoir filling period, which ranges from 5 to 7 years, according to the "German Institute for International and Security Affairs." According to several studies by Cairo University, Egypt's water share is expected to decrease to 34 billion cubic meters annually, which threatens the country’s water security, especially given the growing population and the destruction of the agricultural and livestock sectors. This will also lead to devastating environmental impacts, drought, and economic crises.
    
2. Desertification risks: According to the Egyptian General Information Authority's portal, if the dam is completed and the reservoir is filled, the area of agricultural land in Egypt may shrink by an estimated 3 million acres. This will exacerbate food security issues and increase food prices.
    
3. Impact on the agricultural sector, which is the backbone of Egypt's economy. Around 23% of the workforce in Egypt is employed in agriculture, so the consequences of the dam, particularly the loss of agricultural land, will displace between 5 to 6 million farmers, further worsening social and economic instability in rural areas.
    
4. Deficit in hydropower generation: The completion of the reservoir filling will cause a decrease in water levels and storage in Lake Nasser, potentially affecting the operation of hydroelectric turbines.
    

The "German Institute for International and Security Affairs" predicts that power generation from the High Dam will decrease by 30% during the filling period, which will last between 5 to 7 years. Additionally, the lower levels in Lake Nasser will lead to drought periods and a decline in water quality.

Sudan

The expected impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan are divided into two groups, according to the "NATO Atlantic Organization in Canada" (NAOC):

1. Positive Impacts

1. Sediment retention: The dam will help capture the sediment carried by the Blue Nile floods, reducing the sedimentation in Sudan by about 100 million tons. This will protect Sudan's dams from sediment buildup and increase their storage capacity and electricity generation potential.
    
2. Halting destructive floods: The dam will help in controlling destructive floods, which will assist Sudan in organizing agricultural seasons, power generation, and groundwater replenishment, ensuring a stable water supply.
    
3. Expansion of arable land: The retreat of water and sediment deposition in Sudanese lands will increase the available agricultural land, thereby contributing to the country's GDP and providing the opportunity to benefit from the electricity generated by the GERD.
    

2. Negative Impacts

1. Initial filling phase: During the initial filling phase, thousands of acres may be deprived of water during the flood season, causing a loss in crop production. This will also affect groundwater levels and agriculture.
    
2. Dam collapse risk: According to the "Egyptian General Information Portal," there is a risk of the dam collapsing due to its construction in a sloping area, which experiences the force of Blue Nile waters. A complete collapse could lead to severe flooding, submerging many cities, including Khartoum.

Negotiation Process and Legal Foundations

Since 2011, rounds of negotiations have been held regarding the GERD, with each party relying on different legal interpretations to support its rights to the Nile waters based on its perspective.

The downstream countries—Egypt and Sudan—base their claims on the principle of "historical rights," referring to the agreements made between Egypt and Ethiopia and their successors, starting with the 1891 Rome Protocol, leading up to the 1993 framework agreement between Egypt and Ethiopia. All these agreements emphasize the conservation of water resources and commit to not harming the water interests of downstream countries through the construction of dams or projects that disrupt water flow without agreement among the three nations, according to the "Egyptian General Information Portal."

Ethiopia, on the other hand, builds its legal argument on the principles of sovereignty and the right to exploit resources as determined by its government. Ethiopia relies on Articles 5 and 7 of the 1997 United Nations Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which stipulate equitable and reasonable use. This principle allows a country to benefit from any international watercourse that passes through its territory, provided it does not cause significant harm to other co-riparian countries.

The diverging interests between Ethiopia, as an upstream country, and the downstream countries led to a halt in negotiations. Egypt declared the negotiation process deadlocked in December 2023 due to the failure to reach an agreement that satisfies all parties, while Addis Ababa continued construction and filling the dam.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the completion of the GERD in December 2024, leaving the crisis unresolved, which could pose a threat to African stability and lead to intense geopolitical tensions among the three nations.

The Stability of the African Continent Amid the Water Dispute

The Nile Basin encompasses 11 African countries (as mentioned above), covering an area of about 8.9 million square kilometers, which accounts for 30% of the African continent. The populations of the Nile Basin countries make up approximately 40% of the continent's total population. This means that the region represents a critical population block, and their rights must be respected to avoid jeopardizing their water and food security or turning their developmental goals into political leverage or military threats, as this could plunge the continent into a dark tunnel, destabilizing it.

The joint statement issued by the foreign and water ministers of Sudan and Egypt during the recent consultative meeting in Cairo last month sends a positive message about the importance of seeking a political solution to this crisis, despite the deadlock in GERD negotiations. Both Egypt and Sudan emphasized their commitment to finding peaceful and political solutions and reiterated that the GERD issue remains a matter between the three countries (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia), without involving other basin countries.

Thus, the Nile Basin Initiative of 1999 will continue to serve as the comprehensive cooperation mechanism that brings together all basin countries and acts as the pillar of water cooperation to achieve public benefit, preserving friendship among Nile Basin countries. However, the issue remains unresolved between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. But, Sudan may benefit in the long term from the GERD. This positions it to play a role as a mediator between the more stubborn parties, Ethiopia and Egypt.

This leads to a key question: Is this just a water dispute, or is there another aspect of the conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia?

The Nile River holds immense importance for both countries, extending beyond its role as a natural resource and water source. Egypt views the river as existential, with its historical and cultural significance, as the ancient Egyptian civilization famously thrived on the banks of the Nile.

Practically speaking, the Nile is Egypt's main source of water for drinking, agriculture, and all sectors of life. Therefore, Egypt sees the GERD as a significant threat to its water security and a crisis tied to national security and the future of its generations.

On the other hand, Ethiopia views the GERD as a symbol of national unity against poverty and underdevelopment. The dam has become a national cause that unites Ethiopians from all ethnic and religious backgrounds, according to Foreign Policy magazine.

In practical terms, the GERD contributes to strengthening Ethiopia's manufacturing sector and significantly improves the living standards of Ethiopians. It provides electricity and represents a significant source of income for the country as it transitions into exporting clean energy.

In conclusion, this dispute over the GERD also represents a clash between ancient Egyptian identity, which has been built on the banks of the Nile for thousands of years, and the new Ethiopian identity, which seeks to make the Nile a symbol of its unity and development.

Resolving the dispute between the two countries will require considerable effort to defuse tensions over the Nile, considering these competing identities. Finding a solution to this ongoing deadlock requires addressing Egypt's water security needs, with a conflict resolution mechanism that all parties trust as fair and just, ensuring the preservation of African unity, stability, and identity.